ESAI - What We're Saying

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Trend News Agency, June 21, 2008: According to Andrew Reed, expert of the U.S. Energy Security Analysis (ESAI), the sanctions are not likely to have a significant impact on Iran or its oil and gas sector…."The most likely U.S. policy to punish Iran for its alleged nuclear weapons program is to convince allies to impose sanctions on Iran outside of the United Nations Security Council since permanent members of the Security Council Russia and China are not very supportive of such initiatives," Reed reported to TrendCapital.

Reuters, June 18, 2008: "It's certainly not helping gasoline prices," said Sander Cohan, gasoline and biofuels analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc in Boston. "The silver lining is that ethanol is only blended up to 10 percent into gasoline, so it only has a small effect compared to say, the price of oil."…"The supply chain will catch up ... if the prices stay this high, then people will definitely start looking toward Brazilian cane ethanol," Cohan said.

guardian.co.uk, June 17, 2008: Analysts say moves by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia to hike output ahead of a meeting of oil producing and consuming nations on June 22 could help burst the speculative "bubble" -- if the oil is priced low enough for refiners to begin rebuilding inventories. "The key is the price at which they sell; they need to discount it and make it attractive," said Sarah Emerson of Energy Security Analysis Inc (ESAI). "I don't think that the issue is volume, I think it is price."

Business Report, June 12, 2008: For the first time, refiners ConocoPhillips and Valero Energy would make more money from diesel than petrol in the northern summer, said Andrew Reed, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis in Boston.

Irish Independent, June 9, 2008: Because refiners can't make enough, diesel sells for $145 a ton, or 14 percent, more than gasoline as China halts exports, the Middle East boosts imports and power shortages force mines from Australia to Chile to run oil-fed generators. For the first time, refiners Valero Energy Corp. and ConocoPhillips this summer will make more money from diesel than gasoline in the Northern Hemisphere, said Andrew Reed, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston.

Courant.com, June 3, 2008: "If there is a drop [in oil prices] at all, I can't imagine it would be a 20 percent drop," said Chris Barber, an oil market analyst for Energy Security Analysis, Inc., an independent research firm based in Wakefield, Mass.

Cincinnati Enquirer, May 22, 2008: "OPEC is playing with fire," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "Once prices hit $150 or $200 like our friends at Goldman are saying, we are looking at $5 or $6 gasoline, which will really hurt demand and cause a recession."

Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2008: South America is relying on the U.S. for heating oil this winter, as the continent looks for alternatives to unstable natural-gas production, said Andrew Reed, an oil-market analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy based in Wakefield, Mass. "If you look at the U.S. in an isolated way, the market should be weakening, but because of what's going on in Europe and South America, it's a real bull market, and you can see it in U.S. prices," he said.

Reuters, May 13, 2008: In the meantime, the problem of food and fuel inflation will likely add pressure on energy consumer nations to shift away from food-based biofuels. "The price increases would serve as a force to accelerate the development of non-food-based feedstocks, like biomass and cellulosics," said Sander Cohan, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc in Boston.

Trading Markets, May 9, 2008: "Heating oil's being helped by diesel prices. They move in pretty close tandem," said Rick Mueller, director of the oil practice for consultancy Energy Security Analysis Inc. "Demand for diesel has been growing quite strongly in Europe, and it's also been growing pretty well in the U.S. That's helping to pull up heating oil."…"Traders are looking for anything they can hang a bullish call on, and right now this is the most convenient victim," Mueller said.

Reuters, April 28, 2008: "The surge in fuel imports was to calm the domestic markets that a product shortage would not be a possibility. It was more of a preventive act to restrain hoarding than a reaction to run-away demand growth," said Joy Siew, consultant with Boston-based Energy Security Analysis, Inc.…"At current international price levels, the government will most likely raise prices after the Olympics," said Siew.

Dow Jones, April 21, 2008: "170,000 barrels a day is a lot of oil," said Rick Mueller, director of the oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "It's good quality oil, which is particularly important as we move into the gasoline season because Bonny Light has a high gasoline yield."

St. Charles Journal, April 20, 2008: "Our (distillate) inventories should be increasing, but instead they're being drained," said Andrew Reed, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., an energy consultancy in Wakefield, Mass…. "I believe that right through June we're going to have a pretty tight diesel market." said Reed, of Energy Security Analysis.

Reuters, April 03, 2008: "Transportation demand really hasn't picked up. Diesel is really a freight transportation fuel in the United States along with construction and industrial uses. The monthly data are showing a slowdown but not a decline yet," said Sander Cohan, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc in Boston.

The Christian Science Monitor, April 02, 2008: For the first time since 1980, when long lines sprouted at gasoline stations, Americans are beginning to cut down on their driving…."My feeling is the price will approach $3.50 a gallon as gasoline inventories come down and people start driving more," says Sander Cohan, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "This summer, it's feasible for gasoline to hit $4 a gallon."…Energy analysts are concerned that the dynamics are in place for a relatively quick rise this spring. With gasoline inventories high and demand slow, refiners are pulling back on the production of gasoline, says Mr. Cohan. "The refiners are losing money with oil at these levels, so they are cutting back," he says.

Sydney Morning Herald, March 20, 2008: "There were probably some port issues that impacted the import number last week," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "The import number will probably jump right back up next week. Also, refinery runs are still dropping, which should also boost inventories."…"It's starting to look like crude oil isn't the safe harbor after all," Mueller said. "We can expect huge inventory builds in the weeks ahead and the economic slowdown is already affecting fuel demand."

Money Morning, March 7, 2008: Crude oil reached a new high of $105.97 a barrel in New York yesterday (Thursday), Bloomberg News reported, as the dollar continued to weaken against the dollar. Energy and metal prices continue to increase as investors seek inflation-sensitive investments. "The oil market has completely left the realm of supply and demand," Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Massachusetts, told Bloomberg. "Commodities have become just one more asset class for pension funds."

Bloomberg, March 3, 2008: "OPEC isn't going to boost production like Bodman has requested," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "There's no need for them to raise output because inventories aren't the problem."

Market-Day.net, February 12, 2008: The price of gasoline could spike by springtime in the United States due to a gasoline additive that most people have never heard of….The price of alkylates "is a sleeping elephant," Sander Cohan, an oil market analyst at Energy Security Analysis told The Christian Science Monitor…."Last spring's price hike is partially due to shortages of this, and we're on the lookout for this to happen again this spring."

Bloomberg, February 6, 2008: "Prices may move substantially lower if the economy keeps worsening and OPEC continues to boost production," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "There could be a series of large inventory builds as demand slips. Prices could easily fall into the $70s if this occurs."

Bloomberg, January 31, 2008: "The overarching worry is the economy and in particular how bad the slowdown in the U.S. will be," said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "The Fed is acting very aggressively but there's concern that they won't be successful."…"The crude-oil and gasoline builds yesterday were bearish," Mueller said. "There was a big drop in distillate stocks but we can now see the end of the heating season. It would have been a bigger deal if it had occurred at the end of November."

Bloomberg, January 23, 2008: Crude oil fell, closing at a three- month low, on concern that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest- rate cut will fail to prevent the biggest energy-consuming country from entering a recession. "The focus is on the worsening U.S. economy, which is going to have an impact on U.S. energy demand in the coming year," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "There are no headlines out there to take eyes off the worsening economic picture."…"Speculation that the ECB may also cut rates suggests that worries about an economic slowdown aren't just U.S. phenomena," Mueller said.

GulfNews, January 9, 2008: "Opec is responding to the market," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc in Wakefield, Massachusetts…."From an economic standpoint, it makes perfect sense for them to produce as much as they can. It also helps them politically because they've been taking a hammering because of high prices."

csmonitor.com, December 26, 2007: "Next year, we will probably be in a range of $80 to $85 a barrel," says Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis of Wakefield, Mass. "And if the US goes into a recession, the price forecast will be lower."…Although there is optimism that oil prices will fall, energy analysts caution that a colder-than-normal winter could change the dynamics. "The most recent forecast is for the weather to be cooler into early January but later in the month to be warmer than normal," says Mr. Mueller….Spare capacity will also come from non-OPEC sources, says Mueller. "There are a number of big projects coming onstream in the US Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and Kazakhstan," he says….But next year, some new, large refineries will come onstream overseas, and some of their product will be shipped to the US, predicts Mueller. A new refinery in Saudi Arabia will produce more than 1 million barrels of gasoline per day, and a new refinery in India will produce 600,000 barrels per day. "Most of the new production is export-targeted, mainly to the US and Europe," he says….Energy analysts warn that oil prices can be greatly affected by what happens to the US economy. In 1998, for example, the US slumped and the price of oil fell by 50 percent, recalls Mueller.

Reuters, December 3, 2007: "It's currently a niche area but there's potential for growth, especially given the overall production surplus of biofuels in the United States," said Sander Cohan, oil market analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc.….Some significant hurdles remain, including the difficulty harnessing existing U.S. petroleum pipelines, a step that would give the biofuel industry a huge boost by allowing for faster, cheaper transportation from big producers in the U.S. Midwest.

The Hartford Courant, November 18, 2007: One reason for the high prices is the cost of crude oil, from which heating oil is refined. Crude prices reached new highs earlier this month on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have since eased off those levels but are still hovering around $95 per barrel. Tight oil inventories and strong worldwide demand will continue to drive crude prices, and in turn, the price for refined petroleum products such as home heating oil, said Rick Mueller senior oil analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc., a global energy consulting firm in Wakefield, Mass.

The Boston Globe, November 8, 2007: "This ship will right itself at some point," said Sarah Emerson, managing director at Wakefield consulting firm Energy Security Analysis, who said the severity of the economic impact will depend on the duration of the run-up. "But in the meantime we'll be dealing with very high prices."…Oil refineries, squeezed by narrower profit margins, have been reducing capacity worldwide even as demand has grown, leaving the supply chain much tighter than it has been in the past. "There's very little buffer in the system," Emerson said. "We're in a situation where we're running refineries harder and we've outgrown our capacity."…Others say the oil price trajectory will depend on a range of factors, including weather, changing demand in global markets, and developments in the Persian Gulf. "I don't know if $100 is a target we bounce off of or a target we sit on for a while," Emerson said.

Bloomberg, November 1, 2007: "We could see $100 this week or in the early part of the next," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. "Falling inventories focus attention on the lack of OPEC production out there."

The Boston Globe, October 17, 2007: Heating oil customers may want to start praying for warm weather this winter….The price of crude oil surged as high as $88.20 a barrel yesterday before finishing the day's trading at $87.61, up $1.48, and heating oil prices went along for the ride. The average retail price of heating oil in Massachusetts hit a record $2.75 a gallon, up 3 cents from a week ago and 40 cents higher than it was last year at this time, according to a state survey released yesterday….Sarah Emerson, the director of petroleum at Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Wakefield, said the price of heating oil is tracking the price of crude oil, which has risen 10 percent in the last week. She said many analysts are forecasting that oil will rise a bove $90 a barrel….Even if oil prices fall back, Emerson said, the price of heating oil isn't likely to drop significantly unless the weather this winter is unusually warm…."I don't think heating oil is going to get cheaper any time soon," she said….Emerson said speculators are probably accounting for a large chunk of the run-up in oil prices. She said speculators typically account for 15 to 18 percent of oil market activity, and right now they are buying oil futures because they believe prices will keep rising…."They can be the tail that wags the dog," she said….Emerson said the fundamentals of the heating oil market are relatively strong, but the upsurge in oil prices is swamping those fundamentals. The price of oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $87.61, up $8 in the last week….Emerson noted that the barrel price of oil translates into $2.08 a gallon. She said converting that gallon of oil into a gallon of heating oil adds at least another 60 to 70 cents in refining, distribution, and delivery costs. She said heating oil prices are rising because the cost of underlying crude is rising so rapidly.

Newsday, October 3, 2007: Sarah Emerson, director of petroleum for Energy Security Analysis Inc., energy consultants in Wakefield, Mass., said the key question is whether crude prices could rise higher…Home heating oil for November delivery rose 1.64 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $2.176 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. But analysts said alarms sounded earlier this year about heating oil prices this winter may have been exaggerated. "There's no longer an alarm sounding," Emerson said…The fall so far has been exceptionally warm, and inventories have been building. But, Emerson and others noted, most forecasters are predicting a colder-than-average winter.

The Boston Globe, September 23, 2007: Sarah Emerson, director of petroleum at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, said it probably makes sense for homeowners to purchase price protection this winter, ideally a cap. Caps typically mean a higher upfront cost but place an upper limit on how much customers have to pay while allowing them to take advantage of any price drop if the market softens....Paul Fleming, director of power and gas at Energy Security Analysis, said he doesn't expect wild gyrations in natural gas markets this winter, barring any unforeseen incidents. Read article.

The Washington Post, September 20, 2007: "The impression that the disagreement between the market monitor and PJM means something is rotten inside does not make sense," said Edward N. Krapels, a principal with Energy Security Analysis, an energy consulting firm. "PJM has a lot of very difficult issues. By and large, I think they deal with their issues honestly and effectively."

Dow Jones, September 18, 2007: "Oil companies are looking for options all over the region," said Sander Cohan, a Boston-based oil analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. "With Venezuela as it is, Colombia is a good option," he added. "Some Latin American countries are more protective and charge higher royalties," Cohan said. "In this case it may reflect technical difficulties to reach the oil of some areas," he added. The Colombian government is encouraging companies to take risks, he added. " BP, Ecopetrol and Petrobras are definitely companies big enough to take risks."

The Wall Street Journal, September 12 2007: High Gas Prices, A Crude Reality For Consumers? Crude-oil stockpiles tend to rise in the third quarter during a buildup ahead of the winter heating season. This year, demand in the quarter has outpaced supply for the first time since 2002. Stingy OPEC production and resilient demand from countries like China and India are squeezing inventories and pushing prices higher, said Energy Security Analysis Inc., an energy research group. That leaves little cushion for supply shocks caused by hurricanes or cold snaps, said Sarah Emerson, managing director at Energy Security. "The horse is out of the barn for 2007," she said. "We're going to have a tight market."

Bloomberg, August 29, 2007: Crude oil rose above $73 a barrel in New York to a three-week high after an Energy Department report showed U.S. oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected. Crude-oil stockpiles fell 3.49 million barrels to 333.6 million in the week ended Aug. 24, the report showed. A 600,000 barrel drop was forecast, according to the median of responses by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices have fallen 6 percent this month on concern that fuel demand will decline as a credit crunch in the U.S. slows economic growth. “It would be hard to paint this report as anything other than bullish,” said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The crude- oil decline was much bigger than expected and the gasoline drop was substantial. The market should continue to tighten in the last few weeks of the gasoline season.”

Reuters, July 25, 2007: "We do still have another month of high gasoline demand in the U.S.," said Rick Mueller, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "Any bullish weekly DOE reports on falling gasoline stocks could boost gasoline spreads on both sides of the Atlantic in a hurry." "To the extent that they can, I expect to see European refineries to start moving away from gasoline production to distillate to take advantage of the higher spreads," Mueller said. "You'll see some of the less complex refineries reduce rates."

Reuters, July 12, 2007: "U.S. refineries are going to keep focusing on gasoline longer than normal because stocks are so low, so they won't be able do an earlier switchover to heating oil," said Rick Mueller, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "I wouldn't be surprised to see heating cracks much stronger this fall and winter, particularly if temperatures are similar to or even lower than normal."

Reuters, June 12, 2007: "After the busiest refinery maintenance ended in early May, supposedly we should be seeing more exports from China, especially when Singapore prices have been surging and are likely to remain relatively high," said Joy Siew from Energy Security Analysis, Inc. "Since the government does not want a re-occurrence of the 2005 summer gasoline shortage, it may try to discourage exports," she added.

Newsday, May 10, 2007: Gas prices poised to level off briefly, but experts say summer months may see $6 a gallon. Analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy in Wakefield, Mass., says refineries should be at 91 percent or 92 percent of capacity but that, if they keep increasing output, pump prices should level off soon. "It all depends on whether refiners can come back and come back strong," he said. "I think they can, but it's an open question."

International Herald Tribune, May 10, 2007: "It's hard to be worried about supplies when you see these numbers," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis in Tilburg, the Netherlands. "You have to expect refinery runs to continue to edge up in the weeks ahead, and when they do there will be plenty of crude oil to feed them."

Dow Jones Energy Service, May 1, 2007: U.S. imports have been lackluster because Europe as well as the U.S. doesn't have an inventory cushion, says Mark Routt, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. If that weren't the case, reportedly high U.S. demand alone would have boosted imports by now. "Is it a demand pull or a supply push?" Routt asks rhetorically. European gasoline stocks haven't risen sufficiently to move prices there lower and provide the incentive to move barrels to the U.S. Absent a significant drop in European pump prices, imports likely will stay at bay and U.S. gasoline prices could climb higher still. Making matters worse is the U.S.'s move to ethanol from a mostly banned petroleum-based gasoline additive. Summer-grade gasoline with ethanol, now in its second year of widespread use, has to be blended from a smaller pool of blendstocks to meet both environmental standards and the mandate for ethanol use. "This constraint in the gasoline market is not the volumetric balance of base components, but the balance of additives," Routt says. The old additive, methyl tertiary butyl ether, or MTBE, was a blendstock whose use was compatible with clean-air fuel formulation and could be used to increase summer-grade gasoline volumes, said the fuel consultant. "MTBE was the grease in the system; it lent flexibility," he said. "Now the flexibility is price."

The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2007: Some don't have a ready explanation for the rash of refinery problems and see them as ultimately surmountable but they acknowledge the outages' effect on perceptions. "Anecdotally, it's everywhere and it's a lot," said Mark Routt, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "They should be fixable," he said, referring to the breakdowns. "However, because they're so widespread and going on and on, they're having a cumulative effect."

Newsday, April 26, 2007: Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., says prices for gasoline deliveries beyond May still suggest that prices should level off soon. He also thinks demand is being overstated and prices are inflated on unfounded worries about supply.

International Herald Tribune, April 19, 2007: "Refiners have every incentive to pump out as much gasoline as they can," said Rick Mueller of Energy Security Analysis in Tilburg, Netherlands. "Some refineries will defer maintenance or finish it early to take advantage of the situation."

The Cincinnati Post, April 12, 2007: The higher prices may be starting to have some impact on consumer behavior. Last year, the rate of increase in demand for gasoline was one of the weakest in years, says Mark Routt, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. That trend is continuing, he says. With the price of crude oil off its highs, the price of gasoline will come down eventually, says Routt. "The good news is that there has been less of a price rise at retail than would be suggested by the crude price rise. The bad news is that, as prices drop, it may take longer for them to come down at the retail level."

The Calgary Herald, March 22, 2007: Canada joins non-OPEC states in stealing oil market share: To account for 20% of projected increase in production…Boston-based Energy Security Analysis Inc. said the prime reasons for this are significant growth in output in Canada, Russia, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Britain. "We are forecasting growth in Canada, from not only additional oilsands but also a recovery in East Coast production," said ESAI's senior oil analyst, Rick Mueller. Mr. Mueller was referring to the Terra Nova field, which is projected to re-start production this year at about 100,000 bpd, following the completion of field maintenance work. "After seven successive years of decline, the U.K. will register...growth on the back of rising production from the new Buzzard field," Mr. Mueller said.

Newsday, March 16, 2007: Supply cuts already implemented have helped oil prices rebound from a 20-month low on Jan. 18. "Prices are moving in a range that they are comfortable with," Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield, Massachusetts, consulting firm, said earlier.

Reuters, March 15, 2007: "With crude prices kept below $60 per barrel, refiners feel more willing to increase runs. This is especially true since there's growing confidence in the officials' willingness to adjust domestic prices according to crude prices," said Joy Siew, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis, Inc.

Reuters, March 14, 2007: Lower gasoline and naphtha exports further compounded thin supplies in Asia that have helped lift naphtha prices to record highs. "The decline in product exports is most likely a result of the higher export tax scheme that was launched last year. We should continue to see more domestic production being channeled to meet strong (domestic demand) growth," said Joy Siew, analyst from Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Reuters, March 1, 2007 "I don't think we'll see the same kind of structural problems. I think we are looking at a market that is functioning a little better than it did last year," said Sarah Emerson, director of Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Reuters, February 28, 2007 "We expect European diesel demand to continue rising this year," said Linda Giesecke, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "The new supplies are welcome but will not erase Europe's gas oil/diesel crunch."

Newsday, February 22,2007 "There is probably more to come," said analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy in Wakefield, Mass.

Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2007 In the U.S. these days, significant new refining capacity is seen coming online, which could outstrip demand for refined products, says Mark Routt, a refining analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. European refiners, on the other hand, are going to see new capacity come online more gradually, potentially stimulating margins there, Mr. Routt says.

Newsday, January 25, 2007 Any significant effects aren't likely to be felt until long after Bush has moved out of the White House, experts said. "Whatever change is going to come is not going to happen in the short term," said analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy in Wakefield, Mass.

Reuters, January 24, 2007 "It would be gasoline imports that would be first hit, and we don't get much gasoline from the Middle East. We get it mostly from Europe and Latin America," said Sarah Emerson of Energy Security Analysis Inc. In addition, the reductions outlined in the plan would not be sufficient to offset demand, which the U.S. Department of Energy estimates will grow from about 21 million barrels per day (bpd) now to 23.3 million bpd in 2017. "If you look at how many barrels of oil will be displaced, it is around 1.65 million barrels per day, so I don't think we are really weaning ourselves from foreign oil," Emerson said.

LA Times, January 23, 2007 "When the market is correcting, you need something concrete to stop it. Missiles tests are not concrete," said Sarah Emerson, director of petroleum market analysis for Energy Security Analysis Inc., a research and consulting company. "The low end of the range might be $45 to $55 a barrel. The market is still looking for its next resting place."

Reuters, January 11, 2007 Oil analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc. said the 2007 maintenance program might look heavy because some big plants are shutting for their regular comprehensive turnaround, which is required every four years. "It's the four-year maintenance program," said Routt. "It drags the numbers lower. Back them out and it doesn't look heavy at all. If you are on that cycle, you are going down." Routt added that he could see heavier refinery maintenance planned for the Northeast because record warm temperatures have kept heating oil tanks brimming and supply ample, leading them to gear up early for gasoline season. "If you are in distillate mode, you want to get into gasoline mode as soon as possible," he said.

Newsday, December 1, 2006 Fuel-price analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., said he expects stable natural gas prices and perhaps "slightly firmer" crude oil prices next year. But "we're on the lower limits [of an increase], not a 14 percent increase," said Routt.

Bloomberg, November 8, 2006 ``The distillate number really sticks out but isn't as bullish as it first appears,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Tilburg, the Netherlands. ``Heating-oil supplies actually rose slightly. There was a big decline in diesel but the harvest season is ending so it shouldn't be that significant.''

The New York Times, October 26, 2006 “Production costs are certainly going up as they move across this continuum,” said Sarah Emerson, director of the petroleum practice at ESAI, an energy research firm.

Newsday, October 25, 2006 Analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Wakefield, Mass, sees no further dramatic declines. "I expect we'll stick where we are, plus or minus for a few weeks," he said.

The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 2006 The rising price and demand for motor-transportation fuels have largely driven increases in crude prices for at least two years, says Mark Routt, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "China's and India's insatiable demand for distillate [diesel and heating oil], Europe's appetite for motor diesel and the U.S.'s demand for gasoline have tugged up the price of crude," Mr. Routt says. The oil market doesn't exist in a vacuum, and "crude is only as valuable as the products that are made from it," says Mr. Routt. He adds that global demand for diesel and heating oil is an increasingly important piece of the world energy-price picture, given proportionately higher use of diesel as a transportation fuel outside the U.S.

Newsday, October 11, 2006 Analyst Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Wakefield, Mass., a consulting firm, also disagreed with the federal forecast of higher heating oil prices this winter. "The fundamentals would argue that prices should be lower this year than last."

Reuters, October 10, 2006 "We tend to agree that global gas oil fundamentals are easing now that new Asian refinery capacity is coming online and the Atlantic Basin spec change is largely behind us," said Linda Giesecke, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "Indeed, we see Asia swinging from a gas oil deficit to a surplus this year."

Chicago Sun Times, September 21, 2006 "This has been overdue," said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Mass. "The whole supply-demand balance points to us testing $50, not $80 a barrel. Inventories are pretty high, and although demand is still growing, it isn't booming."

Reuters, September 8, 2006 Substantial increases in oil production in Africa and the former Soviet Union, along with slowing demand, will put the squeeze on oil cartel OPEC in the next five years, a strategic analyst said on Thursday. "There's enough non-OPEC supply to meet demand," said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. "If OPEC goes up from the current level, every barrel they go above where they are today will contribute to a surplus." The result will be "a bit of a squeeze" on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' ability to raise production without driving down prices, Emerson said.

Business Week, September 7, 2006 Eventually, though, the fear of losing business forces all stations to cut prices to what the market will bear. Says Sarah A. Emerson, director of petroleum analysis and research for Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass.: "When their costs are rising, they get squeezed on the other end. Their desire to recoup some of that is pretty typical, pretty normal -- and probably can't last very long."

The Toronto Star, September 6, 2006 Sarah Emerson, director of petroleum research at Wakefield, Mass.-based Energy Security Analysis Inc., said a domestic discovery of that size could help the United States reduce its dependence on foreign oil, which today represents close to 60 per cent of U.S. consumption. "What it does is push out the time horizon for that last barrel of imports, which might be coming as far away as the Persian Gulf or parts of Africa," she said.

The Christian Science Monitor, September 5, 2006 "If the corrosion is not as bad as feared, BP could potentially bring the oil back on stream sooner than the original estimate," says Rick Mueller, a senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass.

Boston Herald, August 31, 2006 Sarah Emerson, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, said she expects prices to fall a bit more as refiners switch from making summer-blend fuels to less-expensive winter blends.

Newsday, August 23, 2006 And Americans do seem to be cutting back on their driving, said Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consultancy in Wakefield, Mass. He said demand is up by less than 1 percent so far this year over last year, also a period of soft demand. A significant decline in prices could rekindle demand, he said. He expects prices to fall further in coming weeks. "I can easily see another 15 cents or more come out of not only your local prices but national prices," he said.

Dow Jones, August 22, 2006 "Everyone expected there would be a bit of give-and-take from Iran and they would stall and try to get more negotiations, so there's been little effect on prices," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "People are now waiting on what the reply from the U.N. will be and how long the U.S. is prepared to wait," Mueller said.

The Boston Globe, August 22, 2006 Mark Routt, a senior analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield consulting firm, said he sees a good chance of prices falling substantially in September. Federal environmental rules require, starting in mid-September in many locations, the production of a so-called winter blend of gasoline, which is cheaper and easier to make than summer blends. That should translate into lower wholesale prices, he said. "Coupled with the traditional demand peak in late August and early September, US gasoline [prices] are set for a rapid drop," Routt said yesterday in a regular e-mail market update. "Product prices helped lead this market higher, and now they appear to be leading it lower."

Christian Science Monitor, August 9, 2006 Another possibility for California is to import fuel from Asian refiners, says Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. "We can look for Korea and Taiwan refiners to export more to meet California demand," he says. "It just gets more expensive."

FOX News, August 3, 2006 "It serves (Iran's) interests to create this kind of concern in the world community about the price of oil," said Mark Routt, a senior analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. "But there are elements to suggest it might not reach that level." He said high prices have lead to an increase in non-OPEC production and turned once prohibitively expensive projects like Canadian tar sands into profitable ventures. At the same time, Routt said, product demand has been dampened by alternative fuel products like biodiesel and ethanol.

The Christian Science Monitor, July 17, 2006 If not for the geopolitical issues, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the global oil market don't support higher prices, says Mark Routt, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. For example, ESAI analysis suggests that Saudi Arabia is continuing to pump oil but is putting it in storage because users don't need it. "We think the price range is $10- to $15-a-barrel higher than the fundamentals would suggest," says Mr. Routt.

Reuters, July 12, 2006 "Were we trying to broaden our supply of energy products? We didn't do that," said Mark Routt, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "We just shifted from one narrow (supply) base to another narrow base."

Oil & Gas Journal, July 3, 2006 "While the Russian oil export data have to be taken with a grain of salt, the preliminary numbers from the energy ministry show a nearly 40,000 b/d year-on-year decline in Russian non-CIS oil exports via the Transneft system in the first 5 months of this year," says Yulia Woodruff, Russian oil analyst at ESAI. While the absolute number is small-about 1% of the country's exports outside of CIS-ESAI believes the trend is likely to continue.

Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2006 Mark Routt, senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., doesn't expect gasoline demand to hit a summertime peak of about 9.5 million barrels a day until August or early September.

Washington Post, June 24, 2006 "Our suspicion is that a number of people found that their cars ran just fine" on regular gasoline, said Mark Routt, senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "And they never went back."

Reuters, June 14, 2006 "End-user demand for ULSD will rise only slowly in the coming years starting with model year 2007 vehicles and trucks," said Linda Giesecke, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "The U.S. shift to ULSD does not stem from the demand side." For U.S. service stations, "Continuing to sell only low sulphur diesel is risky as supplies from refineries will be declining," ESAI's Giesecke said. "For many, the best option may therefore be to convert to ULSD, especially since all diesel vehicles can run on it."

Newsday, May 24, 2006 Although logistical problems seem to have eased in the industrywide substitution with ethanol, a key ingredient used in the refining process called alkylate is in short supply, said Mark Routt, an industry analyst for Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. "We have to go to our neighbors, to Europe," to find alkylate, Routt said. Routt said prices are expected to drop in mid-September, when gas specifications change from summer to winter grade, which he said is easier to make. But before that, Routt said, prices could go even higher than they are now if demand rises.

Platts, May 17, 2006 Alkylate prices are now setting the market price for US ethanol-blended reformulated gasoline, according to a study by Energy Security Analysis Inc. While Europe is seen in the recently released ESAI study as being able to produce sufficient gasoline volume and offset the shortfall in the US, reformulated blendstock for oxygentated blending (RBOB) which must be blended with ethanol to produce RFG is a different matter. Alkylate and other low-RVP, high-octane blendstocks are needed to compensate of high-RVP ethanol in the manufacture of RFG, for which a low RVP is required for summer. The ESAI study argues that since 90% of an ethanol-based RFG is RBOB, its price is more critical than the price of ethanol alone. RBOB prices have run up, according to the ESAI, because of "the blending requirements needed to ready the mixture for the addition of ethanol."

Newsday, May 5, 2006 Much depends, though, on whether American drivers, who have cut back on their usage in the past month, react to a decline in prices by resuming old habits. "As we look forward, it becomes a footrace between supply and demand, which will re-emerge if prices drop," said Mark Routt, a petroleum analyst at the consulting firm Energy Security Analysis Inc., in Wakefield, Mass.

Bloomberg, May 4, 2006 "In recent years prices have run up at this time of year because of concerns about gasoline supplies. In the end we always get through," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis. "At the end of the day there appears to be enough capacity out there."

Christian Science Monitor, April 19, 2006 "I think we're due for a pause here," says Mark Routt, of Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "All the bad news you can think of is in the market, and here we are." The current run-up in price, Routt contends, is more related to stresses in the phasing out of MTBE (methyl tertiary butyl ether), a fuel additive. It is being replaced by ethanol, which is in short supply. "The price run-up is product-led," he says. "Once the refineries come back on stream, it should take some of the pressure off."

Chicago Sun Times, April 11, 2006 Mark Routt, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., said he expects gasoline to reach $3.50 a gallon in parts of the country. "We are in a world of hurt on gasoline," Routt said, citing the switch to ethanol and other changes in fuel specifications.

Christian Science Monitor, April 7, 2006 In fact, the surge in demand for ethanol has sent the price sharply higher. "If ethanol were in abundant supply, the price would not be any higher than gasoline, but it is higher than gasoline," says Mark Routt, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "It's not only higher, but we have an import tariff of 54 cents a gallon and an ad valorem tax of 2.5 percent on top of that."

Oil & Gas Journal, March 28, 2006 Gasoline and ethanol prices are likely to rise in the near term across the US, according to D. Mark Routt, a Dallas-based senior oil analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Wakefield, Mass. Ethanol increasingly is being shipped to the US East Coast for blending with reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending (RBOB) to make reformulated gasoline (RFG) required in that region. "East Coast finished RFG prices are expected to rise in order to 'price up' ethanol and attract a constant supply," Routt said. "At the same time, Midwest gasoline, now without ethanol, would need to find another octane alternative. But those alternatives are either banned or much more expensive than ethanol."

CIS Oil & Gas, March 28, 2006 Despite the furor surrounding the dispute, Yulia Woodruff, oil and gas analyst at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) doesn't think it dented Russia's credibility as a major energy supplier. "The dispute created a lot of discussions on the subject, but at the end of the day, Russia is a major and reliable energy supplier, and will continue to be," she highlights. "Supply distributions were minimal and markets have a short memory. While Russia will continue its policy toward bringing gas prices for former Soviet republics closer to that of its European customers, I don't think that cutting off supplies will ever be used as a negotiating tactic." Woodruff adds: "Russia learned the hard way that this threat cannot be credible because it cannot be sustained. The domestic market for natural gas is highly in-elastic, and it is really difficult to reduce exports for a prolonged period of time without hurting production. If the cold weather in Russia had arrived earlier, that threat would have been more credible and effective, but the lesson would not have been learned."

Oil & Gas Journal, March 23, 2006 Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Boston said the spread between West Texas Intermediate and North Sea Brent crudes "has come down considerably" from its peak near $3.75/bbl October but will likely widen with the US driving season. "In the wake of the Gulf of Mexico production outages last fall, the Western call on crude rose by nearly 1 million b/d," says Rick Mueller, senior analyst at ESAI. "But as production in the gulf recovered and US [refinery] runs dipped for deferred maintenance, the Western call on crude has fallen by nearly 2 million b/d, contracting the WTI-Brent spread to current levels."

The Gulf Times, March 21, 2006 “But in terms of ownership, the most significant is Venezuela’s state-owned company Petroleos de Venezuela through its US affiliate Citgo,” said Mark Routt, an analyst at consultancy Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Business Week, March 13, 2006 Sarah Emerson, director of petroleum market analysis and research at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., estimates that fear adds an additional $15 to the price of each barrel of oil. Tim Evans, senior energy analyst for IFR Markets in New York, goes even higher, with an estimate of $25 to $30 a barrel. We used Emerson's $15 "subjective guess" because her argument for it made the most sense. She argued that oil prices would be somewhat above their historical average anyway because there's little spare capacity. But, she said, prices wouldn't be this high without fears of instability: "If you said every country in this world was stable, and we didn't have to worry about a disruption, I think it would get back to the $40s," she said, vs. the current price of around $60 a barrel. The $120 billion comes from multiplying that $15 premium by the annual oil exports of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Reuters, March 1, 2006 But for motorists in regions where reformulated gasoline is required, the shift may mean higher bills at the pump because ethanol-blended fuel is about 3 percent less efficient than MTBE blends, Mark Routt, a senior consultant for Energy Security Analysis Inc, said. "That means to go the same distance, one's energy consumption will go up 2.5 to 3 percent," Routt said. "If gasoline is currently $2 a gallon, that means there is an additional 6 cents per gallon charge to go the same distance."

International Oil Daily, February 28, 2006 "It was a case of buy the rumor and sell the fact, and now the scare premium is coming out of the market. Our view is that the market will be flat to lower in the next month or so because typically the second quarter has weaker demand," said analyst Mark Routt at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass.

National Post, February 17, 2006 "If prices continue to fall at the pace they have, there is going to be noise from OPEC members like Iran and Venezuela," said Rick Mueller, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. An approach to US$50 a barrel may even get Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer and de facto leader, to mull a production cut when OPEC ministers meet in Vienna in early March, Mr. Mueller said. And the cut in production wouldn't have to be that large to prevent a price freefall, he added. "In a market as uncertain as this, (a 500,000 barrel a day output cut), would quickly get folks attention," he said.

Reuters, February 16, 2006 "We have big maintenance going on so refiners can gear up for low-sulfur diesel, so we're going to chew up some of these high product levels," said Sarah Emerson, director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. "As that happens we are going into the driving season and it's probably going to be a fairly strong because the economy is doing well," she added.

International Oil Daily, February 2, 2006 "Bush certainly staked out government policy direction and the intent of his administration. Whether we make a meaningful difference is an open question," said Mark Routt, senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis. For a meaningful difference there has to be an 'Apollo type' concerted and deliberate effort for a radical shift in energy use. With more than 50% of US oil consumption coming from imports, reducing it by one-third is close to "wishful thinking," he noted.

Reuter's, January 31, 2006 "(This is) the biggest thing to happen to U.S. fuel since the switch from leaded gasoline," said Mark Routt, analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Newsday, January 25, 2006 "There is still concern in the market about those two, but I think the feeling is that perhaps the runup last week was a bit overdone," said Rick Mueller, senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Mass.

Newsday, January 12, 2006 Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Mass., said the uptick in the retail price was a delayed reaction to earlier wholesale price increases. More recent declines in wholesale heating oil prices, she said, combined with warm weather in the Northeast have reduced the need for heating fuels and bode well for a decline soon in retail heating oil prices. "It's hard to imagine on a pure supply-and-demand basis that they won't come down a little bit," she said.

Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2005 Mark Routt, a senior analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston, agreed that pump prices will inevitably rise and possibly surpass 2005's highs above $3 a gallon, but he expects refiners will be able to meet demand.

Oil & Gas Journal, December 2006 Rising demand and tightening specifications are worldwide developments, notes Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI), Boston. A multiple-quality diesel market is developing, she says, with demand migrating from higher to lower sulfur content and eventually to ultralow-sulfur.

The Christian Science Monitor, December 29, 2005 "Natural gas is closer to the end of the Katrina effect than any of the other energy products," says Mark Routt, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "And, lower natural gas prices help those who heat with electricity, as well, since many utilities use gas."

Reuters, December 21, 2005 "We have a pent-up need for refinery maintenance that has been pushed and pushed," said Mark Routt, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston. "In addition, time is also running out for refiners to tie in new units required to meet ultra-low-sulfur diesel regulations."

Newsday, December 21, 2005 Mark Routt, an analyst with the consulting firm Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., said retail prices are catching up to a jump in crude oil from less than $56 a barrel in mid-November to more than $62 in mid-December. "The good news," he said, "is that in the last five or six days, the price of crude has come down." So, he said, retail gasoline prices should follow, probably next month. Plus, Routt said, once the holiday season ends, driving and gasoline demand usually decreases. "As demand starts to ease in the next few weeks, prices should go down with it," he said.

Hydrocarbon Processing, December 2005, While US distillate spreads have eased from their early October peaks, researchers at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. (ESAI) are projecting a bullish outlook this winter. "Our current supply/ demand forecasts show a larger distillate deficit occurring in the US this winter than in other given years," according to ESAI. As a result, the cushion provided by inventories and the availability of imports will be crucial. As such, one issue of concern on the supply side is the potential for deeper refinery maintenance than expected in the first quarter. "Refiners that have pushed their plants this year and deferred maintenance will need to take these facilities down at some point before the new ULSD specs are introduced," says the company's outlook. "This could actually reduce output, even as hurricane-damaged refiners return to service."

Platts, December 1, 2005 Refiners must make the 15 ppm fuel starting Jun 1, 2006. However, some second quarter ULSD-related shutdowns have been moved forward and "production will really start by May," Mark Routt, senior consultant with Energy Security Analysis, told conference participants.

Money, December 2005 "Around the end of November, people may be getting their first real cold-weather heating bills, and they could be 50% higher," says Sarah Emerson of Energy Security Analysis. Heating oil costs are up, and natural gas prices have jumped 50% in a year. Emerson warns that some consumers will feel a "triple whammy"--first gasoline, then heating costs, then electric bills. In places where power plants use natural gas, including New England and Southern California, utilities are talking about increases of 10% to 30%. Nationally, though, electricity prices will rise less because much of the country's juice comes from coal or nuclear power.

Newsday, November 23, 2005 Mark Routt, an analyst at the consulting firm Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., said that with cold weather setting in on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, it's unlikely that heating oil prices will fall much further before they begin swinging upward again. "I would say they're pretty much at a low," he said.

Christian Science Monitor, November 23, 2005 "The pace is quickening," says Mark Routt, an energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "Even smaller, less sophisticated refineries are reconsidering expansions."

Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2005 Plenty of people are following the reports, but who is trading on them? One likely culprit is hedge funds, says Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis. "Are the EIA reports more meaningful than they used to be? Not necessarily," she says. But they are "catching the attention of the hedge funds [because they are] the quickest, easiest hit of information you can get."

The Washington Post, November 8, 2005 "As long as crude oil is still up in the high $50s, gasoline at the retail pump can't come down too much," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "In a lot of ways we're hostage to the weather. . . . Everybody is kind of keeping their eye on the thermometer, seeing where that's going."

Dow Jones, November 7, 2005 However, pipeline companies may run into problems finding U.S. refiners that can process heavy Canadian crude. Most U.S. refineries are designed for lighter grades, although many in recent years have begun outfitting their plants for heavier ones. The refineries best-suited for Canadian oil are on the Gulf Coast, where supplies from many regions compete for buyers, said Mark Routt, senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. "The Canadian producers will have to make their crude more attractive than heavy crudes from places like Venezuela," Routt said. "The refineries may be reluctant buyers, and that's a hill the companies will have to climb."

The Boston Globe, November 1, 2005 "We've had a disruption to the market from the hurricane damage, but I am fairly impressed with how effectively we've managed to respond to it," said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Institute, a Wakefield consulting firm. "Prices will come down some more, but it's always hard to make that prediction because of what can happen in the crude oil market."

Institutional Investor, October 17, 2005 Analysts and oil company executives lay much of the blame on the government for its mishandling of Yukos and the onerous royalties and taxes on oil companies. “The Kremlin’s actions are curbing upside opportunities for production growth in existing fields, let alone promising new ones,” says Energy Security Analysis analyst Woodruff.

The CQ Researcher, October 2005, "Permitting is only one problem," explains Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Boston consulting firm. "Refining has traditionally been a low-profit business. You have to be very bullish on the price of petroleum products relative to crude oil to even consider building a brand new refinery. It's cheaper to build them offshore in the Caribbean - where permitting is easier - and import the products."

The Washington Post, September 30, 2005 Sarah Emerson, managing director for the consulting firm Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., said creating government reserves would keep prices artificially low during supply disruptions. She said the country would conserve more if higher gasoline costs were passed along to consumers. Higher prices encourage drivers "to make decisions about their consumption that are a bit more fuel efficient . . . as opposed to buying an SUV that's twice as big as they need," Emerson said.

Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2005 "You won't see the extended flooding that you did in Louisiana," said Mark Routt, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "You have larger refining capacity but out for a shorter period of time."

The Washington Post, September 20, 2005 D. Mark Routt, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. of Wakefield, Mass., said Houston is an "extremely important hub" for pipelines and other oil industry operations, adding to concern about storm damage.

Christian Science Monitor, September 9, 2005 "To some extent [price gouging] has happened," says Mark Routt, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "But my understanding is that it's been relatively rare and isolated."

Boston Globe, September 7, 2005 Probably the best way of summing it comes from Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield consulting firm: "Every gas station has a slightly different story in terms of their supply line, and that means they have different prices."

Newsday, September 2, 2005 Experts also say that high retail prices will attract more gasoline from abroad. But they concede that the adequacy of supplies will depend greatly on whether consumers hoard gasoline by topping off tanks frequently. "If they just do their normal things, there won't be any [supply] problems," said Mark Routt, an analyst for Energy Security Analysis Inc., a petroleum consulting company in Wakefield, Mass.

Boston Globe, September 1, 2005 Energy analysts said the loans from the reserve will have minimal impact on gas prices, but would help ease Wall Street concerns about potential energy shortages as a result of the hurricane. Since refineries along the gulf are on pipelines that service the Northeast and the rest of the nation, a production slowdown there could have caused nationwide oil shortages, said Mark Routt, an analyst at Wakefield-based Energy Security Analysis Inc. "The sooner we help our neighbor put out his house fire, the better we'll sleep at night," Routt said. "It's an opportunity to stop what could have been a spike in prices, and to assure that the rest of the country won't have a supply disruption they could have had."

Wall Street Journal, August 31, 2005 Not everyone agrees with such dire scenarios. "Prices may stay at these [current] levels, or even go higher for a few weeks, then start to come down," said Mark Routt, an analyst at Wakefield, Mass.-based Energy Security Analysis Inc. "The system is going to work itself out in four or five days."

Christian Science Monitor, August 31, 2005 "There are adequate supplies relative to demand," says Mark Routt, an analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "There are 19 days of gasoline relative to demand."

Boston Herald, August 24, 2005 "Every little bit helps, but this seems like a small start," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield. He said the United States goes through about 9.1 million barrels of gasoline per day - or 382 million gallons.

Christian Science Monitor, August 23, 2005 "It's going to cost more for people to keep warm this winter," says Rick Mueller, senior energy analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass.

ABC World News Tonight, August 22, 2005 Unlike the `70s and `80s, where we had a supply crisis, we're actually seeing increased demand around the world, and it's going to take all of us changing our lifestyles before that price is going to come back down again.

Reuters, August 18, 2005 "The fact that the No. 1 U.S. producer of MTBE is ending it is less about economics than a legal liability issue, and that could well be the bellwether for the rest of the industry," said Mark Routt of Energy Security Analysis Inc.

Dow Jones, August 15, 2005 "In the past, the incremental production of crude oil went to exports," said Yulia Woodruff, analyst at the Energy Security Analysis Inc., who expects Russian oil demand to grow faster this year than other analysts. "But profitability dynamics changed. And if the production of crude oil declines in Russia, the external market will be hit much harder." Underpinning Woodruff's concerns are a sharp decline in the country's oil production growth as its oil demand accelerates and new export taxes that make refining crude domestically more attractive than exporting it.

Christian Science Monitor, August 14, 2005 "We are on the cusp of change," says Mark Routt, a senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "Looking back over the last year, Americans have had a taste of higher oil prices that have only gone up, and now they are starting to dial in lifestyle changes."

Los Angeles Times, August 11, 2005 "It seems every day there's a story of a refinery with a problem," said Rick Mueller, senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass.

Boston Herald, August 9, 2005 Indeed, Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, said he wouldn't be surprised if gasoline hit $2.50 per gallon in coming weeks.

Detroit Free Press, August 9, 2005 "This recent run-up is really all reaction to news headlines and fears," said Mark Routt, a senior petroleum consultant with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "We are too high in terms of prices, but we believe that we're at a turning point and that the market should be coming down in the next few weeks."

Dow Jones, August 8, 2005 Wenchao Su, China analyst at ESAI, says that unaccounted inventory data could increase Chinese demand for crude oil products 2%-3% higher than the country's recent oil data suggested. "It would be stronger but not as strong as last year's growth," he adds.

Madison Energy Advisors, August 8, 2005 "Last year, China imported 45% of its total crude oil, and this percentage is likely to go beyond 65% by 2020," said ESAI oil analyst Wenchao Su. In addition, China's import sources are highly concentrated, with 50% of imports coming from the Persian Gulf and 30% from Africa. "With political instability in the Persian Gulf, potential conflicts with the US over Taiwan, strategic competition with Japan and India over energy, and the instability of Russian government policies, it is vital that China build the SPR in order to protect itself from any potential oil supply disruption," Su said.

Barron's, August 1, 2005 "The key is not the current, ephemeral differentials between light and heavy crude-oil grades, but the capital needed to install upgrading equipment," said Mark Routt, analyst at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. "It's easy to calculate the costs, but it's much more difficult to calculate, with any certainty, the returns. It's a gamble."

Reuters, July 31, 2005 "Refining problems contribute to the prices as well, but the big story is people are looking at King Fahd's death," said Rick Mueller, a crude expert at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Massachusetts. "For the first time people are thinking about life after Abdullah. The succession there is not as clear," he said.

LA Times, July 28, 2005 With crude trading near $60 a barrel, oil companies "don't really need much more encouragement" to launch exploration projects, said Rick Mueller, senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "Companies already are looking anywhere they can to find additional barrels." Moreover, the energy legislation wouldn't do much to quench America's thirst for oil. Rising demand in the U.S. -- the world's biggest consumer of petroleum -- as well as in China, India and elsewhere has been a major factor in keeping global oil markets tight and pump prices high. "There's very little in the bill, really, to address that," Mueller said.

Dow Jones, July 28, 2005 While U.S. gasoline demand has grown less than 1% year to date, diesel demand is expanding at a stronger than usual rate, according to Linda Giesecke, an analyst at the Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. ESAI estimates diesel demand grew about 5% during the first five months of the year and should rise by 3% to 4% this year.

Dow Jones, July 19, 2005 Most U.S. refiners are designed to maximize their gasoline production, said Mark Routt, analyst at Energy Security Analysis, Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. And while refiners can swing on average between 3% and 4% of their output from gasoline to distillates, he added, many had to go through a lot of planning and extra costs in order to maximize distillate output to meet the growing demand. "Now they are in distillate mode and they aren't going to switch very quickly," Routt said. "It's not as quick as making a right turn." The current $1.51/bbl spread between gasoline and distillate margins may not be big enough an incentive for the time and trouble they've endured, he said.

AP Newswire, July 14, 2005 Oil analyst Richard Mueller at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Boston said the IEA's outlook for slower growth in China made sense given that country's relatively inefficient use of energy, which makes it more price sensitive than, say, the United States.

Newsday, July 12, 2005 "As demand continues to build, prices will continue to go higher," said Mark Routt, a petroleum analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. a consulting company in Wakefield, Mass.

Oil & Gas Middleast, July 11, 2005 "In addition to their obvious bottom line impact, these adjustments have had several important implications, which, against the backdrop of the persistently wide spreads between internal and world crude prices, help to explain the shift towards increased domestic throughput that we have been witnessing recently," says Yulia Woodruff, senior Russia & CIS oil analyst for Energy Security Analysis.

Newsday, June 23, 2005 Mark Routt, senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis Inc., an energy consulting firm near Boston, said he believes oil prices are between 10 and 15 dollars above what is justified by the fundamentals of the market. "When you have herd mentality," he said, "the market can be silly for some time. The supply-demand fundamentals don't support these prices." Routt said he expects oil futures to eventually drop as traders realize that supply levels do not justify current high prices. "Eventually they are going to turn around and head to the exit when people see that fundamentals are being ignored," he said.

Dow Jones, June 21, 2005 Russian crude production is expected to rise by a slim 200,000 b/d in 2005, well below the 750,000 b/d growth in the previous three years, consultants ESAI say. Production through the first five months of 2005 remains below the peak seen in September, while Russian domestic demand has grown, ESAI says. "The roaring economy and increased revenues from Russian oil exports have helped to boost demand," says ESAI Russian specialist Yulia Woodruff. "Both on the supply and demand side, Russia is helpin to support the strong rally we've seen in crude prices this year."

Christian Science Monitor, June 21, 2005 "There are no specific fundamentals to point to, no outages, strikes, or production problems," says Rick Mueller of Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. "But, if oil goes over $60 a barrel, it will have a psychological impact. It will get folks' attention."

The Journal News, June 21, 2005 Those who are making forecasts offer a variety of opinions. Linda Giesecke, an energy analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., said she expects crude oil prices to drop about $10 a barrel by August. That would cause home heating oil prices to drop about 30 cents a gallon, the firm believes.

Forbes, June 16, 2005 "Rosneft is not interested in being integrated with Gasprom," says Yulia Woodruff, an analyst of Russia's oil industry at Energy Security Analysis in Wakefield, Mass. Roseneft owns Yugansk, the former Yukos oil-production asset that was bought at a mysterious auction in December by a shell company and then given to Rosneft days later. "Now they have this triangle and they cannot figure out who will own it and how to integrate it."

Dow Jones, June 15, 2005 Whether the industry can move further in favor of distillate production is in doubt. Typically, distillate yields run about 25% this time of year. But the distillate yield is already running around 26%, just under the peak of 26.5% seen in December, according to Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield, Mass., consultancy. "There is a limit to how much of a shift you can make," said ESAI analyst Linda Giesecke. "We may be close to maximum. It's not like that they can shift that much more in distillate. It's very unusual to see that kind of yield."

National Post, June 14, 2005 "Outside the U.S., diesel is becoming the fuel of choice," said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. "World demand for distillate fuel is growing faster than that for gasoline. Gasoline stocks are plentiful, but that's not the case for distillate."

Reuters, June 7, 2005 "We're going to see continued price strength through the rest of the year because, while demand growth is slower, spare capacity remains tight," said Rick Mueller, analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc. "Demand for OPEC crude will be high because non-OPEC producers are lagging," he said.

San Diego Union Tribune, June 5, 2005 The possibility that such actions might spread to other countries is unnerving investors, said Rick Mueller, senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis, an independent research firm. "Absolutely, they're concerned," he said.

Newsday, May 13, 2005 Mark Routt, senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., says he expects crude oil's price to decline further between now and Memorial Day, with gasoline prices following suit. But, he said, rising seasonal demand for gasoline will keep the decrease modest. "At some stage," he said, "demand is going to step up and hold that decline in prices." In this area, he said, state clean-air requirements for relatively expensive low-evaporative summer fuel are helping keep prices high.

Reuters, May 5, 2005 As U.S. refiners focus on making ultra low sulfur diesel, the volume of distillate production could fall, prices will be volatile and regional shortages may occur, petroleum analysts Energy Security Analysis Inc. said on Thursday. "Refiners will focus over the next two years on quality over quantity," said Linda Giesecke, analyst with ESAI in Massachusetts.

Christian Science Monitor, May 4, 2005 In fact, some analysts say it's too early to celebrate. Mark Routt, a senior consultant at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass., argues that demand is continuing to rise. Last week, consumers bought 9.31 million barrels of gasoline per day, up from 9.17 million barrels per day the week before. "I think demand climbs from here," he says. At the same time, he says refiners are in the process of switching to summer-grade gasoline, which is used in urban areas to cut down on smog. Producing this fuel costs more money - an expense that is usually passed on to the consumer.

NECN May 1, 2005 Managing Director of ESAI Sarah Emerson, talks about the energy policies Pres. Bush outlined this week in his prime time news conference. Part of his plan would include adding more nuclear power plants and oil refineries in the United States -- a move critics say will not help with high gas prices in the short run.

Reuters, April 27, 2005 China's refineries can't handle the heavy, high-sulfur content crudes that Venezuela would be offering it, Rick Mueller, senior oil analyst at Energy Security Analysis Inc., told