BANNING
MTBE IN THE CONNECTICUT AND NEW YORK GASOLINE MARKETS: A PRICE
HIKE FOR THE NORTHEAST?
Price:
$150
California
became the first major gasoline market in the United States,
and the world, to ban MBTE. While the ban will take effect
in 2004, a majority of refiners have already removed the clean-burning
gasoline component from their gasoline production and replaced
it with ethanol. Many years have been devoted to studying
the potential difficulties with such an endeavor in California,
but much less effort has been put into examining what will
essentially be a similar ban in New York and Connecticut,
starting January 1, 2004. This ban will create a new gasoline
pool that has specifications that are entirely different than
surrounding markets.
Concerns
with the price effects of such “boutique” fuel markets in
the United States reached all the way to the White House with
the Bush Administration’s national energy policy. Nevertheless,
it appears that boutique fuels (especially for gasoline) are
proliferating. Price spikes in the California gasoline market
have not abated despite the relatively smooth transition to
ethanol.
Energy
Security Analysis, Inc’s (ESAI) new study, Banning
MTBE in the Connecticut and New York Gasoline Markets: A Price
Hike for the Northeast? addresses all the major issues
currently facing the gasoline market in the Northeast in light
of the upcoming MTBE ban. The report focuses on the potential
supply impacts of switching to ethanol, both in terms of domestic
refiners and foreign suppliers, and raises important questions
about infrastructure and logistical issues that will accompany
a ban of MTBE. The study focuses on the Northeast’s unique
supply perspective, and places the MTBE ban in the context
of a general tightening of Atlantic Basin gasoline standards.
ESAI’s goal is to raise important questions which we believe
have not been adequately addressed in light of the upcoming
ban of MTBE and switch to ethanol in the Northeast. Refiners,
both foreign and domestic, as well as consumers and governmental
entities will find this study useful and provocative.
Please
contact Buster Clegg (bclegg@esai.com) for more information.
Tel: 781-245-2036 • Fax: 781-245-8706
AFTER
SADDAM: STABILITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF
Price:
$100
The slayings of Uday and Qusay Hussein dramatically demonstrates
the rapidly changing nature of events in the Middle East.
With the conclusion of formal hostilities in Iraq, but a seemingly
unending guerrilla war, how long will the U.S. remain in Iraq?
The issues of stability and security in the home of 65 percent
of the world’s oil reserves remain critically important, yet
at the same time poorly understood. Will Iraq and the region
prove more or less stable in the aftermath of Operation Iraqi
Freedom? Will the recent naming of a governing council lead
to democracy in Iraq, or will it collapse in chaos? Will the
recent tentative steps by Prime Ministers Abbas and Sharon
lead to peace?
ESAI’s
new study, After Saddam: Stability in the Persian Gulf,
analyzes these and other key issues.
Detailed
country analyses for Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and
the United Arab Emirates.
An
examination of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and
it’s hopes for success.
The
reasons behind the rapid U.S. victory over Iraq, and what
the future holds for that country.
The
likely future military posture for the U.S. in the region,
and the potential for hostilities with Iran.
The
prospects for political and economic reform in the various
Gulf States are described in detail.
THE
GLOBAL OIL MARKET: HOW WELL DO WE UNDERSTAND IT?
How
clear are the signals from the oil market? The answer
to that question is the premise of a new study by Energy Security
Analysis, Inc. (ESAI). The study - The Global Oil Market:
How Well Do We Understand It? - raises this question
in the context of deciphering the mixed messages the marketplace
emits on any given day, week, month, or year.
ESAI explores
the question for policymakers in the first chapter of the
report, Part I: Oil Market Analysis and Strategic Stocks.
This is a particularly relevant topic as the U.S. and its
allies embark on anti-terrorist activities in response to
the September 11 attacks and the impacts that such activities
are might have on the worldwide oil market.
The ESAI
study takes an in-depth look at the complexities of the world-wide
petroleum markets, presenting a variety of ways for policymakers,
planners and risk managers to look at the markets and specifying
the pros and cons of each approach. In Part II: Problems
with the Global Oil Market View, ESAI reviews the two
approaches for generating an overall, "global," view of the
oil market: the Global Oil Balance and Global Crude Oil Balance.
In addition to addressing the benefits and shortcomings of
each approach, ESAI reviews the issue of data credibility
and its impact on each view. Just how accurate and timely
is the underlying data upon which each approach is based?
In Part
III: Masking the Fundamentals, ESAI addresses the exogenous
factors that work to mask fundamental signals. These factors
are not related to supply, demand, or inventory directly,
but influence the way in which market players and observers
perceive supply, demand, and inventory. ESAI points to this
as an increasingly important issue, pointing to some of OPEC's
recent decisions as prime examples of the growing importance
of this development.
In the
final chapter, Part IV: Recommendations Regarding Oil Market
Assessments, ESAI makes four recommendations on how analysts,
planners, and policymakers should view the oil markets in
order to achieve the most accurate snapshot of the current
situation.
"In sum,
oil market analysis is a big job," ESAI concludes in the report.
"It cannot be simplified into a table or a stock number."
It can and must, however, be done, and, in this new report,
ESAI provides policymakers with a roadmap on how to tackle
this increasingly complex task.
For more information, contact Edna O'Connell at 781/245-2036;
E-mail: ednao@easi.com.
A
new ESAI study, Northeast Power Market Outlook: 2002-2010,
will examine how proposed new NERTO rules, proposed transmission
pathways, load evolution, and new power plant construction
will coalesce over the next eight years. The report will provide
power price forecasts and zonal spread forecasts for key markets,
and provide indications of the major judgments investors and
traders will have to make to understand power market dynamics.
The
Northeastern United States constitutes a power market with
load and generation facilities in excess of 100,000MW. The
market currently consists of three power pools: NEPOOL, NYPP,
and PJM. Since all three regions are committed to power market
deregulation, they constitute the largest true power market
in the world.
Currently,
transmission constraints severely limit transfers between
the regions and between the different pricing zones within
the regions. In addition, the markets are organized around
significantly different trading rules and regulations. These
differences should disappear over time as FERC's requirement
for a Northeastern RTO (NERTO) become effective. This requirement
will most likely be met largely by moving Nepool and NYPP
towards PJM rules.
Planned
merchant transmission projects will also play a key role in
integrating the northeast markets. The northeastern power
markets will change significantly over the next decade depending
on which of the projects get funded and built. The price of
power and the value of generators and transmission pathways
will all be profoundly affected by the increased integration,
the increased depth and liquidity of the Northeast.
The
Northeast power markets will become a model - a counter-model
to California, if you will - of how to organize a power market.
Northeast Power Market Outlook: 2002-2010 will examine all
of these impending developments and provide a snapshot of
northeastern power markets in 2010.
For more information and pricing contact Edna O'Connell, Tel:
781/245-2036: E-mail: ednao@esai.com.
This study
argues that the great expectations of the China market during
the 1980s and 1990s were misguided. Energy demand was
not solely a function of economic growth, but was conditioned
by government policy. By examining government policy
and structural changes in the economy, this study forecasts
jet fuel, kerosene, naphtha, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and
natural gas demand to 2010. Developments in refinery
capacity and trade are also examined in the context of China's
effort to meet changing patterns of petroleum product demand.
This unique
study identifies and examines the six most critical issues
shaping refining profitability in the next decade. The
Asian economic contraction has left the Asian refining industry
in crisis. Profitable refining margins of only a couple
years ago have collapsed. The crisis, however, is not
limited to Asia. While it is not as severe in Europe
and the U.S., it is still troubling enough that the oil industry
has embarked ion a path o dramatic consolidation and rationalization.
It is against this backdrop that the future of refining margins
must be examined. This study identifies the six most
critical issues and how they are likely to unfold over the
next 10 years, shaping refining profitability in Asia, Europe,
and the U.S. In developing a thought-provoking view
on each, ESAI draws on 15 years of analyzing oil markets and
forecasting refining margins.
To order
a copy of this study please contact Edna O'Connell at ednao@esai.com
Projects
NEPTUNE:
A SOLUTION FOR THE TRANSMISSION DILEMMA
ESAI,
as part of Atlantic Energy Partners, is working towards a
solution for the transmission dilemma. The Neptune Regional
Electrical Transmission System will connect rapidly growing,
electric-load centers in New York City, downtown Boston, and
the Connecticut and New Jersey shores with clean and efficient
electric generating facilities in Eastern Canada and Maine.
Employing
state of the art, environmentally proven sub-sea cable technology,
the Neptune System will overcome constraints to the existing
land-based electric transmission grid which hinder the efficient
use of energy resources along the Mid and North Atlantic seaboard.
How
clear are the signals from the oil market? The answer
to that question is the premise of a new study by Energy Security
Analysis, Inc. (ESAI). The study - The Global Oil Market:
How Well Do We Understand It? - raises this question
in the context of deciphering the mixed messages the marketplace
emits on any given day, week, month, or year.