Oil Energy Fundwatch, A One-week Outlook on the Financial Factors Driving Oil Prices

For a 30 day trial of this report please click here or contact Soner Kanlier, skanlier@esai.com or 781 245 2036 x22

Scatter Shot Reform, Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation 2010-2025

Scatter Shot Reform analyzes how the global transport fuel markets will develop in the coming decades, and quantifies the impact of each technology on a region-by-region basis. The ultimate result is a calculation of the global influence of these forces on transport fuel demand through 2025.

ESAI’s analysis shows that competing and most often conflicting reform will result in a vastly different fuels landscape than the comparatively simple gasoline and diesel market in place today. This sector will most likely not develop in a manner envisioned by any current stakeholder in the process. Indeed, the emergence of new technologies will not be orderly—instead developing slowly and haphazardly.

Click here to download the study prospectus which includes abridged version of Table of Contents. For more information, contact Soner Kanlier at skanlier@esai.com or 781-245-2036.

Atlantic Basin Stockwatch Report

Summary:
Key Takeaway: Perceptions will deter refiners from cutting runs enough to keep margins from collapsing. This spells disaster for simple refiners, especially the 3.3 million b/d of at-risk capacity in Europe.

Supply/Demand Fundamentals: Weak Products Demand Steep Cuts
High distillate stocks and anticipated heating oil weakness send a strong bearish signal over the next six months, echoing the message about weak fundamentals in ESAI’s Global Crude Outlook. This trend is reinforced by seasonal weakness of gasoline and softening fuel oil. Strong throughput cuts on both sides of the Atlantic are necessary to stabilize refining margins.

Perceptions: Winter to Rescue Distillate?
The seasonal trends of month-on-month stock draws and heating oil demand growth will delay the collapse of distillate margins. The reality of bearish distillate fundamentals will only truly set in once prospects for a winter demand spike fade. In the near term, this inclination will support margins and discourage refiners from making the required deeper throughput cuts.

For more information, contact Soner Kanlier at skanlier@esai.com or 781-245-2036.

Northeast Power Markets Energy Watch

In this quarterly issue of Energy Watch, ESAI assesses the current investment environment in the context of the ongoing recession, possible CO2 legislation, increasing renewables requirements and the tight credit environment. In the regional markets, ESAI looks at forward energy and capacity revenue expectations the three Northeast markets.

ESAI examines the diminishing supply role of LNG in the US natural gas markets even in the context of growing global supplies. Estimates of the need for LNG imports in 2030 have dropped from 4.4 Tcf to 0.8 Tcf due to the more optimistic outlook for domestic production, due in large part to unconventional shale gas supplies. Global LNG production is expected to increase from 8,200 Bcf/yr in 2006 to 18,000 Bcf/yr in 2014.

This issue of ESAI’s Northeast Energy Market Watch Quarterly reflects collaboration between ESAI and Charles River Associates (CRA), under which senior CRA analysts have provided targeted contributions, high-value insight and additional input into this ESAI report. This joint effort is designed to deliver additional value to ESAI Power’s Northeast Power Service clients through the breadth of our combined perspectives. Please note ESAI and CRA remain unique organizations dedicated to their respective client bases.

For more information on this report contact Thomas Sutro, tsutro@esai.com or 781-245-2036 x11

Northeast Power Markets Energy Watch

In this month’s issue of Energy Watch, ESAI provides and overview of the recently completed fifth RGGI auction for 2009 vintage credits which cleared at a price of $2.19/ton. 2012 credits were also a part of the auction and cleared at $1.87/ton.

In the regional sections, ESAI assesses the factors for increased heat rates in 2009 as compared with 2008. Heat rates have increased despite lower loads this year. Key factors include higher proportional O&M and emissions costs with lower gas prices and the impacts of coal units in PJM.

Natural Gas production has dipped from recent highs, but higher prices this winter should induce a return to higher production levels. Record inventories of 3.8Tcf are expected that will keep prices in check this winter.

For more information on this report contact Thomas Sutro, tsutro@esai.com or 781-245-2036 x11

Summary: Northeast Power Bi-Weekly shows one week outlooks issued Monday and Thursday which provide energy price forecasts (for NE HUB, NY Zones J & A, PJM) and a summary of key market drivers. Click here to download a sample pdf.

For more information on this report contact Thomas Sutro, tsutro@esai.com or 781-245-2036 x11

Summary: Northeast Utilities and United Illuminating announced today that the Middletown-Norwalk 345 kV transmission project is fully energized, ahead of schedule and under budget. The project eliminates one of the last major intra-Connecticut transmission bottlenecks, thus greatly reducing congestion risk in Southwest Connecticut. Click here to download a sample pdf.

For more information on this report contact Thomas Sutro, tsutro@esai.com or 781-245-2036 x11

Summary: The NYISO worked with ESAI to draft this Transmission Expansion White Paper in order to review the potential and actual drivers of transmission expansion activities in New York State and its neighboring control areas. While PJM and ISO-NE have facilitated a great deal of investment in transmission expansion projects to address reliability, it appears that the NYISO will be able to best promote transmission expansion through the development of its economic planning process and the Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Studies which will begin after the 2009 CRP is issued.

Click here to download a sample pdf.

Summary: This Report argues that transmission development in the northeastern United States and Canada could substantially transform existing regional power markets. Some of the transmission development is between regional markets, some is within them. Some development will be driven by "Demand Pull" pressures, and some from "Supply Push" forces. The climate for transmission development has never been better, although building such infrastructure remains extremely challenging. The institutions that will build most of this transmission will not be "your father’s utility," even though some may well carry the same name as that utility. All of these dynamics strongly suggest that transmission investment in the next 20 years will be dramatically different from that in the past 20 years. The Report is organized into eight sections. The first four provide useful background information that is included because, while there are many reports from regional transmission organizations and sp

ecific companies, none aggregate these regions into a "Great Northeast Power Market" analytical framework. Section 5 presents ESAI’s outlook on regional transmission initiatives from the Canadian Maritimes, Québec, New England, New York, and PJM. Section 6 drills down into three major regional transmission project developments:

Section 7 revisits that old canard of the business – that transmission cost allocation disputes will stymie development. Although this dispute is as old as the transmission industry itself, favorable momentum is building towards finally finding ways to deal with this old problem. Section 8 asks, "Who will build these transmission lines?"

Click here to download a sample pdf.