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ESAI's
Energy Reports
Short-Term
Outlooks
- Daily
Natural Gas Technicals
- See
ESAI's website for daily technical analysis of the Henry
Hub prompt month contract on NYMEX.
 Northeast
Weekly
-
Next-week and balance-of-the-week zonal and pool-wide
power price forecasts for New England, New York, and
PJM based on ESAI's Optimal Power Flow (OPF) model and
market dynamics, including short-term input fuels outlook.
- Natural
Gas Fundwatch
- Weekly
market outlook for Henry Hub prompt month contract on
NYMEX that examines impact of non-commercial trading activity
on commodity prices using Commitment of Traders Report
data published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission. Technical and fundamental factors are also
assessed.
- See
ESAI's website for our weekly forecast of the EIA's
net withdrawal or injection report by region - Consuming
East, Consuming West, and Producing Region.
Medium-Term
Outlooks
- Northeast
Energy Watch
- Analysis
of Northeast energy market dynamics over the next six
months, including identification of key issues facing
market participants.
- Zonal
and pool-wide electricity price forecasts for New England
(Mass Hub, NEMA, CT, Maine, SEMA), NYCA (Zones A, J,
K, G), and PJM (Western Hub, PSEG, JCPL) based on ESAI's
proprietary Optimal Power Flow (OPF) model and unit-level
economic inputs.
- Henry
Hub analysis and price forecast based on fundamental
analysis of national supply and demand factors, as well
as examination of technical indicators and financial
trading of non-commercials on NYMEX.
-
Regional market forecasts for natural gas and residual
fuel oil prices, including assessment of inter-fuel
competition. Pricing points include: Transco Zone 6,
TETCO M3, Algonquin CityGate and NY Harbor 0.3% and
1.0%.
-
Exploration of regional transmission and risk management
issues.
- Northeast
Congestion Watch
- Strategic
monthly analysis that forecasts congestion and nodal pricing
dynamics that will govern the Northeast in the coming
month.
- Effective
tool for optimal utilization of financial transmission
instruments in the region, such as TCCs and FTRs.
- Proprietary
Optimal Power Flow (OPF) modeling combines unit-level
economics, fuel prices, generation & line outages,
transfers from neighboring control areas and grid topology
to create a security-constrained, least-cost dispatch
for the range of loads that can be expected next month.
- Model
enforces transmission constraints and interface limits,
calculating the Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) for
each node in the system. ESAI clients can select up to
30 nodes in the three Control Areas that they would like
monitored.
Long-Term Outlooks
- Northeast
Power Quarterly
- Ten-year
forecasts of zonal power prices in New England (including
Mass Hub, NEMA, SEMARI, and SWCT), NYCA (including Zones
A, C, G, J, K and Ref. Bus), and PJM (including JCPL,
PECO, and PSE&G zones).
- Based
on ESAI's Optimal Power Flow (OPF) model using proprietary
input fuel forecasts and probability assessments for
new generation and transmission capacity.
- Identifies
and assesses critical transmission, capacity, regulatory,
and system expansion issues, as well as long-term market
implications.
- Capacity
Watch
- ESAI performs in-depth forecasts of capacity market clearing prices.
- ESAI's
evaluation of the feasibility for each generation and
transmission project in the Northeast. Every project is
assigned a "probability of completion" factor
in percentage terms that is then applied to develop a
forward assessment of likely capacity additions within
a particular pool.
- All
aspects of project development are considered in assessing
a project -- Early Development and Permitting, Financing,
Construction, Testing and Completion. Details of individual
plant and project assessments, as well as aggregate forecasts
by year, are made available to clients on a quarterly
basis, with regularly updated data available on the Client
Area of our website.
- Transmission
Watch
- Ongoing
evaluation of transmission policy issues.
- Quarterly
assessment of the state of major transmission projects,
pro-forma valuations of the net present value (NPV) of
these projects, and consideration of whether they would
be amenable to merchant development.
- Summary evaluations of project effects on nodal/zonal
power prices in source and sink markets.
For more information on ESAI's power services, please contact
Thomas Sutro at 781.245.2036 or
tsutro@esai.com.
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