SUMMARY: Russia has historically exported medium sour crude, but over the next decade there will be more than a 2 million b/d increase in light sweet exports. Several developments will bring about this transformation.
A geographic redistribution of Russian crude output, with new growth coming in such areas as East Siberia and Timan-Pechora, will reshape Russian output. Much of the new supply will be light sweet, while output of medium sour will decline.
Meanwhile, Russian export infrastructure will continue to develop in line with these internal shifts and Russian foreign economic objectives. Changes to the export infrastructure will enable more light sweet to reach the market without commingling with medium sour crude in the main pipeline system.