Intelligence Briefing: 5.02.11
Death of Osama bin Laden
Summary: The death of Osama bin Laden will have a number of short and long-term impacts on the stability and security of the greater Middle East and South Asia. The implications for the oil market are unclear. To the degree that this event weakens the terrorist threat in oil producing countries and underscores the effectiveness of US covert operations, we could see the dollar strengthen and commodities weaken. On the other hand, to the degree this event spawns a wave of poorly planned but destructive terrorist attacks, it could increase the risk premium in oil prices.. As outlined below, we believe bin Laden’s death is a significant blow to the global jihad of al Qaeda.
Geopolitics
Founded with the name Energy Security Analysis, Inc, (ESAI) has been a thoughtful commentator on energy security issues for 25 years. Building on founder, Edward N. Krapels’ 1980 book, Oil Crisis Management: Strategic Stockpiling for International Security, ESAI has remained focused on geopolitical factors that shape energy markets and influence energy security decisions. In 1987, ESAI published SPRO-Watch, a Guide to Strategic Stock Drawdowns in the Persian Gulf Crisis of 1987. In early 1991, ESAI published The Crude Oil Market after the Iraq Crisis, which provided a detailed analysis of the longer term implications of the Gulf War. From 1990-1995, ESAI published a quarterly journal entitled, Petroleum Politics, which analyzed any kind of political development which affected petroleum. ESAI remained engaged in the energy security debate, publishing Energy Security Revisited: New Approaches for a Global Petroleum Market in 1999. Since then ESAI has conducting proprietary studies on energy security policy for the U.S., Japanese and Indian governments. In 2003, ESAI published After Saddam: Stability in the Persian Gulf, and in 2006, ESAI President, Sarah Emerson, published When Should We Use Strategic Stocks? in the journal, Energy Policy. More broadly, ESAI’s analytical team covers a wide range of geographic expertise and provides monthly analyses of Russia, the Caspian countries, China and the countries of Latin America. From 2001 to present, ESAI has collaborated with faculty members at the US Naval War College to produce the biweekly, Intelligence Briefing, which covers a wide range of geopolitical issues, but with particular focus on the Persian Gulf.
