Petroleum & Alternatives

• The Asian Bitumen Market: a proprietary study and forecast of the Asian bitumen market and an economic feasibility analysis for a bitumen production investment
• Global Fuel Specifications: ESAI conducted an analysis of the future of global and regional markets for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and kerosene for a large Asian refining company. The study combined analysis of fuel specifications around the world with the ability of refiners to produce the requisite volume and quality of the relevant fuels. As such, it drew on ESAI’s proprietary databases of global refining capacity and fuel specifications.
• African Refining Markets: ESAI conducted an industry competitiveness evaluation for an Africa-based refiner considering a new refining investment. The analysis required an integrated analysis and projection of the supply, demand and quality of petroleum products in the Persian Gulf, India and much of Africa. The objective was to determine the impact of this investment and competitor investments on the refiner’s operating refining margin over a specified time frame.
• Asian Refining Markets: ESAI conducted a refining profitability analysis for an Asian refiner with a new refining investment. The analysis required collecting all of the inputs to the refiner’s new operating margin and projecting that margin based not only on regulated domestic market dynamics but also on international market dynamics. The study resulted in recommendations to the refiner’s host government regarding market liberalization options. The project also required a backward looking projection to determine the theoretical profitability of the particular investment in previous years.
• Refining Margins Outlook, a study of the impact on global refining margins of several developments, including the Kyoto Treaty, fuel oil’s demise, Atlantic basin transportation fuels, Japanese deregulation, diesel desulfurization and Asian economic recovery
• Indian Ocean Petroleum Products Outlook, a proprietary study which provided a detailed forecast of refining and consumption developments in the Persian Gulf, India and the East coast of Africa in an effort to determine the evolution of the Indian Ocean market for petroleum products.
• The Global Gasoline Market Outlook. This study provided a 10-year forecast of the global supply and demand for motor gasoline. The demand outlook is built on individual demand forecasts for the 8 largest gasoline-consuming countries in the OECD and outside of the OECD. These forecasts take into account trends in price, income and tax. The supply outlook is based on an examination of the capability of the world's refining sector to produce gasoline.
• A Study of the Transfer of Petroleum Fuels Pollution. This study was conducted with the Energy and Industry Department of the World Bank. It provides a preliminary look at trade in petroleum products between the industrialized and developing countries, in an effort to determine if environmental regulations in industrialized countries are influencing that trade and resulting in the transfer of pollution from the industrialized to the developing countries.
• ESAI’s FSU energy studies, including: The Refining and Distribution System of the Republics of the Former Soviet Union (1992), Rebuilding Russia’s Refineries (1995), Uncorking the Bottle: Russia’s Oil export Infrastructure (1996). These studies were conducted in cooperation with several experts from the Soviet (or Russian) energy sector. They provide, for the first time, a description of the oil refining and product distribution systems. They describe the current infrastructure, and analyze how ongoing economic and political trends are likely to change the refining and distribution systems, and affect the flow of FSU imports and exports.

• The Light Sweet Crude Oil Market in the Mediterranean: a proprietary analysis of the market impact of rising supplies of different qualities of crude oil in the Mediterranean market. The analysis examined production, refining and trade data by quality in an effort to forecast price relationships between grades of crude oil. The study also addressed the impact of two-tier pricing caused by the existence of both OSP and spot pricing for a given benchmark crude.
• Crude Quality Valuation: a proprietary analysis of the value of crude oil at varying degrees of sulfur content. The analysis considered the impact of density and sulfur content on crude valuation, and examined the impact of sweetening sour crude oil at the wellhead.
• Global Condensates Outlook: a proprietary analysis of the longterm supply and demand for condensates, based on a bottom-up survey of natural gas projects, condensate splitter investment and petrochemical demand
• The Global Oil Market: Assessing Supply, Demand and Stocks: a proprietary study of the elements of oil market data collection and analysis.

• North American Biofuels: For a major automobile manufacturer, ESAI conducted an analysis on the current and potential supply, demand and prices for ethanol in the North American market through 2022.
• A Comparison of Gasoline and Diesel: Well-to-Tank Measurement of GHG Emissions: ESAI studied the improvement in GHG emissions from manufacturing diesel versus gasoline. The study provided a literature review and a refiner survey and focused on GHG emissions specifically from the refining process.
• Alternative Fuels for Transportation: ESAI conducted an analysis on the potential market for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) vehicles in the United States and Europe. The study examined the existing market for alternative fuel vehicles, and took into account supply and demand for competing alternative fuels.
• Gasoline Oxygenate Study: ESAI provided an industry assessment for a state government on the issue of oxygenates in gasoline. The assessment focused on the supply costs associated with different oxygenate additives under different scenarios of banning MTBE.
• Trends in Energy/Environmental Regulations in Selected Countries: This proprietary study for the U.S. government included a data-base of the current energy/environmental policies in countries all over the world. In addition, the study included an analysis of the trends in national energy/environmental policies that specifically address the impact of energy use and production on transboundary air pollution. Furthermore, this study addressed the evolution of national and multilateral policies that target global warming.

• Paths to Achieving ASEAN+3 Energy Cooperation, an analysis prepared for the Japanese government on the four targets of the Hiranuma Initiative on energy cooperation among the countries of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations and Japan, Korea, and China. The targets included the formation of an energy security network, oil stockpiling, reform of the Asian oil market and the growing use of natural gas in the region’s energy mix.
• A Policy Framework for India’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, an analysis prepared for the Indian government of alternative policies that the Indian government might pursue in setting up it strategic oil reserve. Topics covered included optimal reserve size, reserves as public or private good, stockpile authority, financing and drawdown policy.
• An Assessment of Strategic Oil Reserves in non-OECD Countries, an analysis prepared for the U.S. government of plans for strategic oil reserves in countries outside of the OECD with focus on policy, size, timing, cost, etc.
• An Assessment of Strategic Oil Reserves in OECD Countries, an analysis for the U.S. government of strategic oil reserves and policy in all of the countries of the OECD.
• U.S. Fuel Transportation Logistics: ESAI conducted a detailed review of the fuel procurement policies and procedures of a department of the U.S. government. The review addressed the timing, pricing and logistics of procurement, but also the potential for using financial markets to hedge those purchases.

Congressional Testimony:

• ESAI has testified before the US Congress on oil market issues

Expert Witness Testimony:

• ESAI served as an expert witness in an international arbitration between a crude oil producer and a commercial bank.
• ESAI served as an expert in a mediation between two owners of a refining company
• ESAI served as an expert witness in an international arbitration between an oil producer and an international oil company
• ESAI served as an expert witness in an international arbitration between a government and an oil company
• ESAI served as an expert witness in An international arbitration between a natural gas producer and a natural gas consumer