Petroleum & Alternatives

• Approach
• Research
• Periodic Reports
• Forecasting Methodology

Clients of the Petroleum and Alternative Fuels practice receive a series of advisory reports, which provide in-depth market analysis and high-quality forecasts of the oil markets that range from one week to 25 years. The written reports are complimented by detailed data sets that can be customized to the client’s specific needs. In addition, clients have access to ESAI principals and analysts for clarification, comments, and answers to questions on all topics in the global energy markets.

Looked upon by the energy industry as the leading source of detailed global insight and analysis, we offer the following types of products and services providing objective and independent research to help your organization comprehend, evaluate, anticipate and thrive in the energy markets.

Strengths of Our Approach:

• Strong client focus
• Analytical innovation
• Seasoned analysts
• International coverage – Global View

Our Research Showcase:

• Detailed bottom-up understanding of supply/demand fundamentals by country and product
• Integration of physical fundamentals with paper market developments
• Analytical Leadership; the first research firm to:
  • Analyze the COT data and integrate paper market fundamentals with physical fundamentals
  • Develop a Crude Oil Balance
  • Develop the Refiner Purchasing-Price Relationship
  • Quantify by country the demand impact of each alternative fuel and engine technology
  • Integration of Market Perceptions with Market Fundamentals
• Wide-ranging understanding and commentary on Geopolitical Issues
• In-depth knowledge of issues and trends in the industry
• Understanding of the impact of emerging trends

Periodic Reports:

We deliver our research analysis and recommendations in a variety of formats, but the foundation is a serious of regular reports. These are timely, incisive reports offering fundamentals analysis and an outlook on the global crude and refined products landscape, anticipating world oil market developments and trends over the next week and 25 years:

Oil Fundwatch (Weekly):

Analysis presenting a 1-week view on prices based on technical indicators, futures and options trading, and financial market developments.

International Fuel Specification Review (Bi-annual):

Analysis of developments in fuel specifications around the world and their impact on fuel markets.

Fundamentals Update (Weekly):

Analysis of US DOE report with implications for crude, gasoline and heating oil prices.

Fuel Oil Watch (Bi-weekly):

analysis and outlook on the global fuel oil market.

Latin America Watch (Monthly):

Monthly review of supply/demand developments in Latin America with implications for Atlantic Basin crude and product markets.

CIS Watch (Monthly):

Review of supply/demand developments in the countries of the Former Soviet Union with implications for global crude and product markets.

China Watch (Monthly):

Review of supply/demand developments in China with implications for Asia-pacific crude and product markets.

Eurasia Watch Natural Gas Outlook (Monthly):

Monthly analysis of natural gas fundamentals in CIS countries with impact on European and Asian energy markets.

Europe Watch (Monthly):

Immediate analysis of the monthly Euroilstock inventory report.

Occasional Memos (Ad Hoc):

Timely analysis of current developments in the energy markets.

Intelligence Briefing (Bi-weekly):

Review of military and political policies that may directly impact worldwide energy markets.

Global Crude Oil Outlook (Monthly):

Analysis of worldwide crude oil markets with a 6-month outlook on crude oil prices.

Atlantic Basin Stockwatch Marketview (Monthly):

Analysis of North American and European product markets with 6-month outlook on petroleum product prices and refining margins.

Pacific Basin Stockwatch Marketview (Monthly):

Analysis of Asia-Pacific product markets with a 6-month outlook on petroleum product prices and refining margins.

East of Suez Petrochemicals Outlook (Monthly):

Analysis of Middle Eastern and Asia Pacific petrochemicals markets with a 6-month outlook.

Stockwatch Quarterly Market Review: (Quarterly):

Quarterly analysis of global crude and product markets, including assessment of refining margins and political and macroeconomic developments. The Quarterly presents a 2-year and 5-year outlook on crude oil prices, petroleum product prices and refining margins.

Long Term Oil Outlook (Annual):

Annual analysis of global crude oil markets with a 25-year outlook on crude oil prices.

Forecasting Methodology:

ESAI’s petroleum market analysis forecasting is based on a data-heavy methodology that is designed to integrate available data with the expert judgment of regional specialists to determine supply and demand trends by product and country in 9 geographic regions:

Using actual data and estimates where data are unavailable, ESAI’s regional analysts maintain historical databases of consumption, production and inventories for each of the main petroleum products and upstream output, refinery throughput and inventories for crude oil. In addition, the analysts track fuel specifications, government regulation and trade flows. Using these data and knowledge of economic and political trends in each region, the analysts develop projections of the supply and demand for each petroleum product and crude oil in each country. These country data are combined into regional and global totals which inform ESAI’s understanding of overall supply/demand trends. In addition, ESAI’s analysts develop and project supply/demand balances by product, country and region. ESAI’s projections of supply, demand and balances range from six months to 25 years.